Nov 30, 2009 by Bruce
Misleading statistics up 11%
This story caught my eye. Hate crimes against gays have increased “nearly 11%,” says the AP in this story. That number (extrapolated from the just-released annual FBI report on hate crimes compared to the 2007 version) is of course being trumpeted all over the blogosphere this week by GLBT groups as “see I told you so” justification for the recently passed federal hate crimes bill.
Except the AP number is seriously misleading. Like on a “Dewey Defeats Truman” scale of misleading. It turns out that AP used the increase in the number of “offenses” reported, not “incidents.” Why does that matter?
Let’s take a (hopefully) hypothetical example. A person with an anti-Christian bias sees me park my car, and notices the “Jesus Loves You” bumper sticker on it (no, I don’t really have one). He goes into a rage, and (1) bashes my head in with his trusty baseball bat (he was on his way to the batting cage), (2) spray-paints “Christianist” on my dog (I don’t know where he got the paint), (3) breaks my windshield and (4) steals my wallet for good measure.
How many “hate crimes” have been committed? One? Four? The FBI would classify that as one “incident” comprised of four “offenses.” If I had been punched out last year by the same guy after he noticed my bumper sticker – but nothing more – did I experience a 300% increase in hate crimes this year or no increase at all? Your answer to that question will determine if you think like an AP reporter.
Actually, the FBI itself warns readers not to draw quick conclusions from its data, since the number of reporting agencies fluctuates wildly each year, as it is a voluntary program. This year, roughly 450 more law enforcement agencies participated than last year. Even with that increase in participants, the number of hate crime “incidents” based on sexual orientation increased by only 32. Not 32%. Just 32. And violent crimes against the person based on sexual orientation (murder, rape, aggravated assault) actually showed a net decrease. (Note – If you add back in non-violent crimes and property crimes - pushing and shoving, calling people names, vandalism, etc. – you get to that increase of 32 I mentioned.)
As a percentage of all “hate crimes,” sexual orientation bias incidents in 2007 came in at 16.6 %, and in the latest report (2008) came in at ….wait for it…..16.7%. Which hasn’t changed much from the mid-1990s when the FBI began keeping these statistics.
The Matthew Shepard Act is an unnecessary threat to religious liberty, a “thought crimes” fiasco, and a usurpation of state sovereignty. The debate over this law continues. And the last thing we need is for the AP’s confused statistical analysis to take up any more breathing room.